A Path for Western Firms in China-Led Infrastructure Era
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▦ OPINION | Arno Saffran, Thu 11 Dec, 2025Seeing the Market as It Is, Not as Politics Imagines It
I’ve spent enough time in frontier markets to know that most of the real decisions shaping major projects happen long before the paperwork appears.
People form a view of who can deliver, who understands the local landscape, and who will still be standing when the dust settles. When I look at the debate in Western capitals about Chinese EPC dominance, what strikes me isn’t the geopolitical noise—it’s how misaligned that noise is with what actually drives commercial outcomes on the ground. The assumption that Western firms can outbid or out-mobilise the big Chinese contractors is a comfortable fiction. The reality is that these firms have industrialised delivery at a scale the West hasn’t matched in decades. But that doesn’t make them rivals to avoid. It makes them the most obvious partners for anyone serious about winning in today’s energy and infrastructure markets. The Power of Complementary Strengths
What I’ve seen repeatedly—whether in West Africa, the Gulf, or Central Asia—is that projects move when complementary strengths line up early and deliberately. Chinese EPCs bring scale, speed, and price discipline that no Western contractor can replicate. But they also know where their own gaps are: proprietary technology, governance credibility, disciplined project finance structures, and the sort of ESG assurance that makes multilaterals comfortable. These are not soft differentiators; they’re the elements that often tip a project from interesting to bankable. And they’re exactly what Western firms still do better than anyone else.
Where Partnerships Are Won—Long Before the Bid
The mistake I see Western companies make is approaching Chinese EPCs as if the relationship will be transactional and procedural. But these partnerships are decided long before the commercial terms are drafted. They hinge on whether the Chinese partner sees you as strategically additive. That means engaging at the conception stage, embedding your technology or expertise into the core design, and making yourself the piece they can’t win without. You can’t bolt yourself onto a bid at the eleventh hour and expect influence or protection over your IP. You have to shape the bid with them, not chase it afterwards.
Why Developers Want This Collaboration
What’s often missed is how attractive a well-structured cross-capability consortium is to hosts and financiers. A Chinese EPC lead paired with Western technical assurance and international governance standards is, in many markets, the strongest signal of both deliverability and discipline. I’ve watched developers—quite candidly—admit that this combination reduces their risk more than any single counterpart could. And in a world where the energy transition is accelerating faster than institutional capacity, risk reduction is the real currency.
Clear Eyes, Clear Boundaries, Better Outcomes
None of this requires admiration or blind trust. It requires clear eyes, firm boundaries, and well-drafted agreements. It also requires a willingness to understand the cultural drivers on the other side of the table. Partnership, in my experience, fails not because interests diverge but because assumptions go unspoken. Once you understand what your partner values—speed, predictability, political alignment—you can build structures that both sides can actually live with.
A Strategic Choice With Real Consequences
The energy transition isn’t waiting for political narratives to catch up. Countries are building at a frantic pace, and they’re choosing the teams that can deliver, not the ones that flatter their ideological preferences. For Western firms, the choice is simple: either find a way to embed your strengths into the dominant delivery model of this era, or accept a diminishing role in the markets where most of the world’s infrastructure will be built. I’ve always believed that strategy in high-value environments is about reading the moment clearly. And right now, the clearest read is that Chinese EPCs are not obstacles—they’re the scaffolding on which much of the next two decades of global build-out will rest. The firms that recognise this early will find themselves shaping that future, not watching it from the margins.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR(S)
— Arno Saffran
Arno developed his approach through roles in client development (KPMG) and strategic commercial engagement (affiliated with advisories including Hakluyt), focusing on complex industrial and energy sectors.
VSG works across the extractive value chain, positioning people who form the critical bridge to early-stage relationships and commercial access in complex markets.
